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Social Security recipients could receive a 2.5% increase in their payments in 2026, according to the latest projections based on May inflation data, a slight increase from the previous month's estimates.
Recent projections for the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2026 show a likely increase of 2.5%, according to estimates from The Senior Citizens League and independent analyst Mary Johnson. This projection represents a slight increase from the 2.4% estimated last month, reflecting the latest inflation data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
The official figure will be announced by the Social Security istration in October, but these preliminary estimates provide an important indication for the millions of beneficiaries who rely on these payments for their daily sustenance.
Factors that could modify the estimate
It is important to note that this 2.5% projection could change in the coming months, as there are four months of data to go before the final calculation. According to Johnson, the Trump istration's tariff policies could potentially drive up inflation and consumer prices, which could result in a higher COLA. However, so far, the consumer price index has shown limited impact from these policies, with an annual inflation rate of 2.4% in May, below expectations.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (I-W), which is the measure used to calculate the Social Security COLA, has increased by 2.2% over the past 12 months, according to May data. Interestingly, although this inflation rate is lower than the 2.5% COLA for 2025, a survey by The Senior Citizens League found that 80% of older adults feel that inflation in 2024 was above 3% based on their personal spending, suggesting a disconnect between official data and retirees' everyday experience.
Concerns about data accuracy
The reduction in the size of the federal workforce under the Trump istration has prompted changes in how the Bureau of Labor Statistics evaluates inflation. The government agency has restricted data collection and turned to models that help fill in incomplete data, raising concerns about the accuracy of annual Social Security COLA calculations
Shannon Benton, executive director of The Senior Citizens League, expressed concern in a statement: "Inaccurate or unreliable data in the I dramatically increases the likelihood that seniors will receive a lower-than-real inflation COLA, which can cost them thousands of dollars over the course of their retirement."